Mark Yusko, a prominent hedge fund manager and the founder & Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, stated that he expects the Bitcoin price to surpass the $1 million mark in the long-term.
— Mark Yusko (@MarkYusko) October 15, 2017
$21 Trillion Market Cap For Bitcoin, Possibility?
Essentially, Yusko believes the market cap of Bitcoin could achieve $21 trillion in the long-term, as the price of Bitcoin breaks the $1 million mark. Specifically, Yusko provided a 10-year timeline for his long-term target, based on the network effect of Bitcoin and its exponential rate of growth.
As thecaa previously reported, many analysts from the Wall Street have provided their long-term predictions for the price of Bitcoin, using various indicators such as the Metcalfe’s law. Earlier this week, highly regarded Wall Street analyst and Fundstrat co-founder introduced his $25,000 mid-term price target of Bitcoin, based on the Metcalfe’s law, which has been frequently used to measure the growth rate of social and communications networks based on the number of users and average transaction value.
“If you build a very simple model valuing Bitcoin as the square function of users times the average transaction value, 94 percent of the Bitcoin moved over the past four years is explained by that explanation,” said Lee.
Basing off long-term indicators, the network effect of BItcoin, and the Metcalfe’s law, Yusko claimed that the “base case” or conservative long-term target of the Bitcoin price is $500,000, considering the current growth rate and the depth of the Bitcoin market.
In response to former JPMorgan executive and head of global macro Alex Gurevich, Yusko stated that he would give Bitcoin a 75 percent chance of achieving the $500,000 mark within the next 20 years. But, he firmly stated that he expects the price of Bitcoin to hit $1 million in the next 10 years.
Can Governments Interfere With the Mainstream Adoption of Bitcoin?
Bitcoin markets in major regions such as the US, Japan, and South Korea have already matured to a point wherein government interference is highly unlikely, as governments have already either imposed national licensing programs for cryptocurrency businesses and investors, or strictly regulated the market to prevent underground economies around cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin from emerging.
It is virtually impossible that governments can and will interfere or restrict Bitcoin adoption in the future as such impractical actions from the authorities would lead investors, users, and businesses to underground economies and over-the-counter (OTC) markets, which are far more difficult to regulate. Already, the Chinese government has hinted the possibility of creating a national licensing program from Bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges, due to its concerns over the migration of trading volumes from regulated platforms to OTC markets.
… and take measures such as record-keeping, licensing, AML processes, real-name, limiting large transactions (3/3)https://t.co/QS8bJWXdAZ
— cnLedger (@cnLedger) October 4, 2017
As the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, a store of value, and digital currency continues to grow at a rapid rate, long-term targets such as $500,000 or even $1 million from highly regarded experts like Yusko will become more realistic.